BELIEVING FALSE PREMISES - THE ROAD TO FAILURE!

*****TRANSFORMING CLIENTS INTO CITIZENS******

NEW YORK CITY'S RATE OF INCREASE

IN HORSE POPULATION IN 1850 !!

Dear Reader,

Did you know that horse populations in the mid-eighteen hundreds in New York City were increasing at more than 12% per year?

At that rate, and making allowances for seepage into the Hudson after heavy rains and the sale of New York born and raised horses  to non-residents of 2.5% per year,  a decreasing horse-fecundity rate prompted by New Jersey-bred mares and a preference amongst New Yorkers for beef and pork over horse meat, one could conclude that by 1879, the first 9 stories of the Empire State Building would be buried in horse-manure! Of course, if one had reached that conclusion..... one would have been WRONG!! And, investments in window washing services based on these projections would have failed....

.....ALERT.....

ONE NEEDS TO BE EVER VIGILANT OF

PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE THAT IS BASED ON

FALSE PREMISES AND FAULTY ASSUMPTIONS!

Considering socio-economic options based on a past where the glass is half empty often will lead us to base our options and plans on what we didn't have and/or couldn't get in the past....drawing the wrong lessons from the experience ..... and not focusing on what our true options or challenges are for the future! The same is true of chosing options based on a strategy that demands we put all of our eggs in one basket.

DID YOU KNOW THAT ... from April 1860 to October 1861.... the pony express really provided a revolutionary and previously unimagined rapid postal service across the United States. Folks saw it as transformational! It was expected to lead the way to an opening up of more timely communications across all of North America, requiring fast ponies strategically located across the country to service the new mail system.  Investors (except those who new better) eagerly lined up and began cancelling plans for alternative communications networks and local investments......... ill-informed opportunists were certain that demand for fast horses and young, agile riders were the key to profitability and better local service

     

..... and then..... and then..... along came the telegraph .... and within months.... the quick demise of the pony express. A concentration of investments in ponies and facilities for fast horses and riders during the 18 months that the pony express operated would have been a poor investment based on inadequate intelligence respecting technological development.

This little bit of history highlights the importance of considering all options when planning for the future and considering the experiences and actions of others.  Drawing on our own resources and competitive advantage to plan for our future investments is the critical lesson to be drawn from this history. 

What happened with Clare's efforts to become energy self-sufficient may be interesting but not necessaily informative if it was done badly .... and for the wrong reasons ......by folks who didn't know what they were doing. Rather, one should draw lessons.... if any are to be drawn.... from the Austrian community the Clare junket visited with SWSDA. A visit to the Austrian web site is very informative and frankly was all that was necessary to learn from their community's experience!

And so.... let me give you my take on energy and the future role it should play in our community, given our half-filled glass.

First..... while predictions of global warming may provide some impetus for looking at alternative energy sources, it would not be the primary force leading me to invest in energy in Shelburne County. In fact, while I would use public pressure and concern about global warning to get favourable consideration of Shelburne County energy self-sufficiency efforts, it would be the only use I think I would attach to global warming fears.

In part, I believe the best we can hope for within our county is that  we can reduce our dependency on others for energy, become self-sufficient and/or produce enough energy for ourselves and some immediate neighbours, improve the competitive position of our own industries and create new jobs we would not otherwise have within the county.

So..... here are my reasons for attaching importance to energy self-sufficiency within the county.....

i.) to the extent that we produce our own energy we may enhance our competitive position and ability to produce goods and services at a lower cost - that's because NSPI's cost of generating power in Halifax and transmission to Shelburne County is the highest in the Province;
ii.) producing our own energy may create local energy production jobs that are now performed in Halifax by folks who don't live and/or spend their earnings in our communities;
iii.) generating energy in Shelburne County based on new technologies may provide us with an opportunity to become a centre for energy production and lead to the export of energy-based manufactures and services from the county;
iv.) energy demonstration projects showcasing new energy technology reflects an image of the county that is positive and can generate a "can do" attitude within and about Shelburne County;
v.) new technology developments in Shelburne County may encourage investors to look at Shelburne as a good place to pursue innovative technologies.

So, dear readers.... I humbly submit my two cents... for your consideration ....

From Energy Dependent to Self-Sufficient

*****TRANSFORMING CLIENTS INTO CITIZENS******

NOW IS THE TIME FOR ACTION

Well dear readers.... its been interesting and the kind of preliminary probing discussion you've engaged in has been stimulating. It's the way the democratic process most effectively begins to weave its magic of thoughtful consideration, analysis, discussion (and sometimes debate and informed civil discourse) on its way to creative community decision-making in healthy and economically competitive social environments.

Now, we need to move on to the next stage...... the organization of data, analysis of options and development of strategies to support constructive action. Here are the bare bones draft specifications for analysis of our energy options and development of a Strategic Plan for Energy self-sufficiency in Shelburne County. These would of course have to be fleshed out and have timelines added to them but I believe they give us a start.

DRAFT

SHELBURNE COUNTY

ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY STRATEGY (SCESS)

Scope of Work

Reporting to the community group charged with the conduct of this development Strategy the team will assume responsibility for the gathering of information about energy needs and technology options and opportunities in Shelburne County, risk associated with various options, costs, benefits, financing options potential spin-off benefits, possible associations and structures for managing the development and long-term management of energy facilities in Shelburne County.

Terms of Reference

More specifically, the Team will:

a. gather information about present energy consumption in the County and develop a low-growth, medium growth and high growth projection of energy needs within the County (highlighting the projected needs of the towns of  Lockeport, Shelburne and Clarks Harbour and the Municipalities of Barrington and Shelburne) over the next 25 years;

b. gather information about technology options and potential opportunities for hydro, wind, wave, tidal, biomass and geo-thermal;

c.  identify specific projects dealing with each of the potential energy options identified above;

d. undertake SWOT Analysis of each of the options identified and reviewed above;

e. complete preliminary cost/benefit analysis of the options being considered with the attendant sensitivity analysis of the three most important variables for each;

f. identify potential financing options for each possible energy development and detail the strengths, weaknesses and risks associated with each;

g. identify, describe, qualify and quantify potential industrial and other spin-off benefits associated with possible implementation of each option; and

h. propose potential organizational and corporate structure options for management of the development and management of the strategy and resulting facilities.

And so we start the process of organized consideration of Shelburne County's Energy Options given our location and other natural and demographic attributes.

As some of us/you embark on that journey I want to talk to you about other journies we might take associated with our location on the South Shore of Nova Scotia..... BUT THAT'S FOR NEXT TIME!

In the meantime, vote on the new survey question, submit your questions and comments, suggestions and criticisms and identify what you think we should do next to become energy self-sufficient and.... who should do it... private citizens.... municipal governments on their own or as Team Shelburne, our new RDA.... old RDA?

More Good News About Our Location

OCEAN-BASED ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

I believe our location and proximity to the oceans provides Shelburne County with an enormous energy self-sufficiency advantage over in-land locations.

This should not be surprising.....  In most societies, location is a major determinant of energy options. In the past, traditional sources of energy such as fossil fuels provided the most advantage to societies that either had the fossil fuel nearby and/or societies close to suitable harbours for importing energy. Proximity to hydro sources provided an alternative traditional source of energy.

In the 50s, 60s and 70s, the economics of nuclear power plants drove developers to focus on facilities that could serve relatively large markets that were close by. They were more successful in some locations than others.... The proposed size of nuclear facilities and NIMBY tensions were and continue to be the primary deterents to nuclear power development.

The relatively recent push to develop sustainable energy sources has seen the re-development of hydro sources of energy .... as well as increasng efforts to develop wind, tidal, wave and biogas sources of energy.

* And.... in my view .... Shelburne County's future energy develoment needs may be met by....  near-shore wind and wave sources...... as is now occurring in Denmark, the UK, Portugal and other locations ... (See http://www.pelamiswave.com/  for more on commercial wave energy and a site in portugal.)

For more information about ocean locations and energy  development from the ocean.... take a look at: http://www.oceanenergycouncil.com/index.php/Tidal-Energy/What-is-Ocean-Energy.html . I think the Ocean Energy Council's review of the costs of ocean-based energy development options and their comparison of costs for land-based energy alternatives is a compelling argument for ocean-based energy options.

While the bay of fundy may have tidal power potential..... my review indicates that in Shelburne County,  wave power may be the answer.. and ..... the prospects for more immediate results are better. (There may also be some potential for biogas and better management of hydro power potential in Shelburne County.)

Moreover, given our location and present ship and boat building/repair facilities and  expertise, the prospect for manufacturing jobs associated with the construction of wave machines and windmills  throughout the County looks promising too.

Did you know that the present cost to NSPI of producing and transmitting power to Shelburne County is amongst the highest in the Province?

Folks, did you know that the production costs per kwh of existing wave machines appear to already be competitive.....? 

AND .... did you realize that the shape of Shelburne County and the location of its populations along the coast would appear to provide numerous options in Shelburne for the future deployment of wave machines near-shore in Shelburne County. 


And so dear reader..... location appears to favour us again.... providing Shelburne County with what appears to be a perfect location for near-shore wave and wind energy systems... as well as the perfect location for manufacturing the energy sytems of the future for shipment to other markets around the world!

A PERFECT COMPLEMENT .... to our marine industry base!

Gee folks.... looks like our glass isn't half full.... our cup verily runneth over .... already......!!

MORE ABOUT OUR LOCATION COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

*****TRANSFORMING CLIENTS INTO CITIZENS******

... THE DIALOGUE BEGINS ...

For those of you just waking up, one of our readers was busy last night... Thoughtful and thought-provoking contribution to the dialogue  from Anon 10:56 PM. I urge readers to take a look and wade in with your thoughts or comments. In the meantime let me add some thoughts to my earlier comments and those of Anon 10:56PM.

Shelburne's coastal location and other attributes can provide Shelburne County with a comparative advantage because of its proximity to a significant segment of the world's consumer and industrial markets.  However .... to take advantage of it requires looking at the glass from a different angle than we have traditionally.

YES ... our location can be helpful in terms of providing a gateway for others to ship through. And, yes as pointed out by Anon 10:56, our lack of good land transportation systems reduces the advantages we might derive as a shipping gateway.

HOWEVER ...  our real advantage might be as a place to import materials for fabrication and manufacturing for export to other markets or to service proximate markets. Anon 10:56 alludes to that application when he/she refers to servicing the offshore development that is expected in the coming years. Anon 10:56 also suggests "green ship demolition and decommissioning" as another application of our advantage that our harbour provides.

History shows ... industries can develop using raw materials from other locations if they can be imported easily and if your location provides an advantage in both importing raw materials and exporting finished products to likely markets. The world is replete with examples of this successful model. Holland does not grow cocoa beans but everyone has heard of dutch chocolate. Nor is it the original home of tulips. And yet , Holland is now known as the home of the flower first introduced during the Ottoman Empire in the mid-1500s. Moreover, it is now recognized world-wide as the commercial centre for the production, research, development and introduction of tulips. In like manner, Antwerp has developed as the world centre for diamond cutting, polishing and related trades and industries. Belgium has no diamonds but the Belgian Congo did. Importing the diamonds to Belgium for finishing served the colonial interests of the day for adding value to raw materials found in distant lands. And, it didn't hurt that Belgium was close to its most likely consumer and industrial markets. Antwerp continues to be one of the primary diamond centres of the world. I mention these simply as examples.... there are thousands more that you may think of yourselves dear readers. In our own back yard, ambulances shipped all over the world but manufactured in Yarmouth!

Sooo.... I think Anon 10:56 has a point when pointing out the disadvantage imposed on our communities because of the under-investment in land transportation in our area. On the other hand, if we focus on developing container traffic to provide materials for manufacturing and assembly businesses in Shelburne County and for exporting products assembled and manufactured here .... maybe there is a more localized container opportunity that would also support the development of new local industries.

And.... if we can bring containers here to support local manufacturing, and we have the ship-buildng and offshore supply businesses going, maybe we could even start a container manufacturing, repair and/or servicing facility to complement our other efforts in this area.

NOW...  if you can add to that model the introduction of value-added industries that we might grow from our own natural resources.... you might have the makings of a diversified economy that would not only sustain the communities in Shelburne County but might actually prompt vigorous socio-economic development ... and we've only started the discussion!

For Example ...  someone recently wrote about the possibility of manufacturing the massive windmills that are key to the development of renewable energy around the world,  here in Shelburne. Given their size, delivery of these windmills lend themselves to ocean transport over land transport as does the importation of raw materials and manufactured components for their assembly. When added to the Black Bull raw materials that can be used to manufacture solar panels, a whole new group of green industries might not only lend themselves to our County's  industrial base... but may even help us increase our own energy self-sufficiency, while making Black Bullmore competitive and viable while reducing the environmental impact of shipping large volumes of raw materials down Water Street in Shelburne.

Anyway dear reader and especially Anon 10:56... that's the way I see it this morning. Remember, Plato taught his students that reality was in many ways dependent on perspective .... the harbour you see is different than the one I see although it is the same harbour..... and both perceptions of its reality are legitimate and worthy of consideration when looking for opportunities!

PS.... If you don't mind, I am saving my comments re Education, Tourism and Service industries for a later blog...... You'd be surprised how they might be linked to the present discussion!

Today's Featured Resource

***** IDENTIFYING OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES******

Every day I hear or read about the problems facing our communities in Shelburne County. The decline of the fishery, closure of military bases, boys school and other federal and provincial facilities, the drift of younger populations to larger urban centres and other areas of the country the reduced activity at our community college, closure of hospital facilities and services and declining tourism are good examples.

This litany of depressing developments is true. Denying them solves no problems. Neither does focusing on them and ignoring the opportunities presented by the things we do have and the new opportunities that arrive daily.

This morning I want to re-launch this blog in a  new direction..... I want to start discussing the half of the glass that is full!

And soooo.... let's start with Shelburne's natural geographic phenomena and the resultant advantages I can name .... right off the top of my head.....

And dear reader, I would ask you to join me as we begin this exciting journey to explore the natural advantages we have in Shelburne County.

 OVERVIEW OF LOCATION ADVANTAGES

1. Location - Our geographic location places us on the edge of the North American seaboard with close proximity to the United States and its market of some 360 million people. It also places us closer to the Caribbean and the Atlantic Side of Central and South America than any other jurisdiction in Canada. Our location also favours us as a shipping centre for cargo destined for Eastern and Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Far East. 

Our weather patterns are milder in Winter than most of Canada and our location results in diminished threats from hurricanes. Eastern Shelburne County has one of the highest winter solar irradiance levels in North America and the entire county benefits from ice free conditions in most of our harbours. For all intents and purposes our location far from the mid-atlantic ridge and relatively low incidence of earthquakes also means that our risk from tsunamis is low.

Our proximity to the natural gas and oil deposits off the east coast of Nova Scotia  gives us a preferred position to service that industrial development and our location next to George's Bank and the Bay of Fundy generate significant fisheries opportunities.

In like manner, our proximity to a population base of some 50 million within 500 miles of Shelburne County favours  us as a natural area for development of our tourism indusry.

Got any additional suggestions as to why our physical location favours Shelburne County?  Send them in as comments and I will add them to our inventory of the things that make our glass half full.

Additions to blog.

*****TRANSFORMING CLIENTS INTO CITIZENS******

Dear Reader,

You may have noticed some additions to this blog today. On the left hand side of the blog there is now a clickable link to two other blogs (one is a new blog called Shelburne Development that I am launching today ) and Timothy Gillespie's ever- popular and recently resuscitated Shelburne County Today. Adding this makes it easier for readers to move from one to the other.
I have also added a survey question tool that you can monitor as folks vote.... should be interesting.
Hope you enjoy it.

Ed